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Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?

  • Ashvin Ahuja
  • Lillian Cheung
  • Gaofeng Han
  • Nathan Porter
  • Wenlang Zhang
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    Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities’ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China.Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have,a structural driver.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/274.

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    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/274
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