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Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?

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  • Roberto Piazza

Abstract

In emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. I show that, in the presence of financial markets imperfections, a simple modification of a neoclassical growth model can account for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors optimally choose to suddenly restrict lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down growth. The economy defaults and enters a financial crisis.

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  • Roberto Piazza, 2010. "Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?," IMF Working Papers 10/267, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. J. Cruz & P. Lind, 2012. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(8), pages 1-9, August.
    2. Nicola Amendola & Lorenzo Carbonari & Leo Ferraris, 2018. "Collateral and Development," CEIS Research Paper 424, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 20 Feb 2018.
    3. Jo~ao P. da Cruz & Pedro G. Lind, 2011. "The dynamics of financial stability in complex networks," Papers 1103.0717, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    4. Peng, Kelly Z. & Wong, Chi-Sum & Song, Jiwen Lynda, 2016. "How do Chinese employees react to psychological contract violation?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 815-825.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Default; growth rate; capital inflows; gdp growth; capital stock; economic growth; International Lending and Debt Problems; One; Two; and Multisector Growth Models; Growth; Sudden Stop; Credit Crunch;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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