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Forecasting U.S. Investment

Author

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  • Pau Rabanal
  • Jaewoo Lee

Abstract

The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a crucial issue for the U.S. and global recovery. On the basis of several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period. The contribution of investment to real GDP growth will be 0.8 percentage points on average over the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Pau Rabanal & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Forecasting U.S. Investment," IMF Working Papers 10/246, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. F. Bacchini & M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & C. Jona Lasinio, 2014. "ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics," Working Papers wp956, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1211-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bfr:rueban:2017:44 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..

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