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After the Crisis; Assessing the Damage in Italy


  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Hanan Morsy


Italy’s deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. With output back to its end-2001 level, Italy’s output losses associated with the crisis have been, thus far, about 132 billion of 2000 euro (around 10 percent of precrisis 1998 - 2004 real GDP). About three quarters of these losses are estimated to be due to a shortfall in potential output. Potential output is not expected to rebound to its precrisis trend over the medium term, even though growth is projected to do so within the next two years. In the short-run, the decline in output is mainly accounted for by a collapse in productivity; in the medium term, employment and capital are also likely to be affected, with implications for the longer-term growth and fiscal outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Sgherri & Hanan Morsy, 2010. "After the Crisis; Assessing the Damage in Italy," IMF Working Papers 10/244, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/244

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2008. "The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 13840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    2. Philipp an de Meulen & Torsten Schmidt, 2013. "Von der Euroeinführung zur Schuldenkrise: Ergebnisse einer Wachstumszerlegung für ausgewählte Länder des Euroraums," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(2), pages 77-96.
    3. Annamaria Nifo & Domenico Scalera, 2011. "Structural Changes in Italian Industry: The Impact of Crisis. A Comment on the Book Edited by Laura Rondi and Francesco Silva," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, June.

    More about this item


    Italy; Potential output; productivity growth; output losses; unemployment; total factor productivity; tfp; employment; real gdp; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models;

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