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Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid; New Evidence

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  • Era Dabla-Norris
  • Camelia Minoiu
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna

Abstract

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more countercyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Era Dabla-Norris & Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid; New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 10/240, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/240
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    2. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jean-Louis COMBES & Christian EBEKE & Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2011. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittances a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," Working Papers 201121, CERDI.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Peter Claeys & Luis Costa, 2012. "“A Note on the Relationship Between the Cyclicality of Markups and Fiscal Policy”," AQR Working Papers 201208, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2012.
    6. Debasish Kumar Das & Champa Bati Dutta, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis And Foreign Development Assistance Shocks In Least Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-41, June.
    7. Civelli Andrea & Horowitz Andrew W. & Teixeira Arilton, 2016. "A Signal of Altruistic Motivation for Foreign Aid," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-31, October.
    8. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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