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Deconstructing the International Business Cycle; Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method freely estimates the contemporaneous correlation matrix for underlying shocks in the VAR and (uniquely, to our knowledge) the associated uncertainty. Our results suggest that the international business cycle is largely driven by U.S. financial shocks with a significant impact from global shocks, mainly reflecting commodity prices. Other advanced economic regions play a much smaller and regional role in growth spillovers. Our findings are consistent with the emerging evidence on the current crisis

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Deconstructing the International Business Cycle; Why does a U.S. sneeze give the rest of the world a cold?," IMF Working Papers 10/239, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/239
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2015. "Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 133-158.
    2. Rania Antonopoulos & Kijong Kim & Tom Masterson & Ajit Zacharias, 2010. "Investing in Care: A Strategy for Effective and Equitable Job Creation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_610, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Truman, Edwin M., 2014. "The Federal Reserve engages the world (1970-2000): an insider's narrative of the transition to managed floating and financial turbulence," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    5. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    6. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Papers No 3/2013, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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