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Monetary Policy Matters: New Evidence Basedon a New Shock Measure

  • Christopher W. Crowe
  • S. Mahdi Barakchian
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    Conventional VAR and non-VAR methods of identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on the economy have found a negative output response to monetary tightening using U.S. data over the 1960s-1990s. However, we show that these methods fail to find this contractionary effect when the sample is restricted to the period since the 1980s, apparently due to changes in the policymaking environment that reduce their effectiveness. Identifying policy shocks using Fed Funds futures data, we recover the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on output and find that almost half of output variation over the period appears due to policy shocks.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/230.

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    Length: 65
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/230
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    1. Thapar, Aditi, 2008. "Using private forecasts to estimate the effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 806-824, May.
    2. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    3. Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 69-90, Fall.
    5. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
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