A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
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- Cumby, Robert E. & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989.
"Financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg: Argentina 1979-1981,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 111-127, August.
- Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-648, August.
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