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Investment; Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment

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  • International Monetary Fund

In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses the "quantity", "international comovement", "Backus-Smith", and "price" puzzles. Second, we use OECD data for the relative price of investment to build and estimate these IST processes across the U.S and a "rest of the world" aggregate, showing that they are cointegrated and well represented by a vector error correction model (VECM). Finally, we demonstrate that when we fit such estimated IST processes in the model instead of the calibrated ones, the shocks are actually not as powerful to explain any of the four montioned puzzles.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/207.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/207
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  1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
  2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2004. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  4. Andrea Raffo, 2008. "Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles," 2008 Meeting Papers 511, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2009. "The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky; It's Really About Exchange-Rate Hedging, not Equity Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 09/12, International Monetary Fund.
  6. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  7. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2008. "High exchange-rate volatility and low pass-through," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1113-1128, September.
  10. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," Kiel Working Papers 1513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  11. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2008. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Not as Bad as You Think," CEPR Discussion Papers 6982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  14. Altig, David & Christiano, Lawrence & Eichenbaum, Martin & Lindé, Jesper, 2004. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 176, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  15. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
  17. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1998. "The Role of Investment-Specific Technological Change in the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 449, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  18. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  19. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 16681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  22. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Javier García-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," NBER Working Papers 12629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  25. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
  26. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Marianne Baxter & Dorsey Farr, 2001. "Variable Factor Utilization and International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Raffo, Andrea, 2008. "Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 14-29, May.
  29. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
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