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Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?

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  • Reginald Darius

Abstract

During the period leading up to the global financial crisis many asset classes registered rapid price increases. This coincided with a significant rise in global liquidity. This paper attempts to determine the extent to which the rise in asset prices was influenced by developments in global liquidity. We confirm that global liquidity had a significant impact on the buildup in house prices; however, the impact on equity prices was limited. In contrast to common perception, we find that the impact of global liquidity declined during the period of the Great Moderation. The paper also examines spillovers from global liquidity to domestic variables and concludes that domestic factors generally played a more significant role in house price appreciation relative to global factors. This contradicts the hypothesis of weakened potency of domestic monetary policy in the presence of increased international liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Reginald Darius, 2010. "Can Global Liquidity Forecast Asset Prices?," IMF Working Papers 10/196, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/196
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    Cited by:

    1. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    2. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 61-85.
    5. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    6. Kroot, Jan & Giouvris, Evangelos, 2016. "Dutch mortgages: Impact of the crisis on probability of default," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 205-217.
    7. Aquiles Arrieta Barcasnegras, 2012. "La relación entre los flujos de capital y el precio de la vivienda: el caso colombiano," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE 010854, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.

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