Inflation in Tajikistan; Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges
This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
|Date of creation:||01 Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John B. Taylor, 1995.
"The monetary transmission mechanism: an empirical framework,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
- Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005.
"Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
- Franziska Ohnsorge & Nienke Oomes, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Dollarized Economies; The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/144, International Monetary Fund.
- Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
- Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia; Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
- Yusuf Tashrifov, 2008. "The Design of Monetary Policy in a Small Transitional Economy: The Case of Tajikistan," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 11(1), pages 13-36, May.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.