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Inflation in Tajikistan; Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges

Author

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  • Svetlana Vtyurina
  • Fahad Alturki

Abstract

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Vtyurina & Fahad Alturki, 2010. "Inflation in Tajikistan; Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 10/17, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
    2. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    3. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September.
    4. Era Dabla-Norris & Holger Floerkemeier, 2006. "Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in Armenia; Evidence from VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 06/248, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    6. Yusuf Tashrifov, 2008. "The Design of Monetary Policy in a Small Transitional Economy: The Case of Tajikistan," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 11(1), pages 13-36, May.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Hespeler, 2013. "A VECM evaluation of monetary transmission in Uzbekistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 219-253, May.
    2. Qurbanalieva, Nigina, 2013. "An empirical study of factors affecting inflation in Republic of Tajikistan," MPRA Paper 51888, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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