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China’s Economic Growth; International Spillovers


  • Athanasios Vamvakidis
  • Vivek B. Arora


This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios Vamvakidis & Vivek B. Arora, 2010. "China’s Economic Growth; International Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 10/165, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/165

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Franco Modigliani & Shi Larry Cao, 2004. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 145-170, March.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    4. Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
    5. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
    6. Guonan Ma & Wang Yi, 2010. "China’s High Saving Rate: Myth and Reality," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 5-39.
    7. Il Houng Lee & Woon Gyu Choi, 2010. "Monetary Transmission of Global Imbalances in Asian Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/214, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, February.
    9. Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," 2005 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Almansour, Aseel & Aslam, Aqib & Bluedorn, John & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2015. "How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 460-483.
    2. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo & Margherita Velucchi, 2011. "The “China effect” on EU Exports to OECD markets – A focus on Italy," Working Papers - Economics wp2011_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    3. Lauren A. Johnston & Stephen L. Morgan & Yuesheng Wang, 2015. "The Gravity of China's African Export Promise," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 913-934, June.

    More about this item


    China; Economic integration; Spillovers; growth; gdp growth; real gdp; economic growth; net exports; world trade; Economic Growth of Open Economies;

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