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Budget Consolidation; Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Susanna Mursula
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of fiscal consolidation using simulations based on the IMFs global DSGE model GIMF. Over the longer run, well-targeted permanent reductions in budget deficits lead to a considerable increase in both the growth rate and the level of output. The gains may be enhanced by shifting some of the tax burden from incomes to consumption. In the short run, credibility plays a crucial role in determining the size of initial output loses. Global current account imbalances would be significantly reduced if budget consolidation was larger in countries with current account deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Kevin Clinton & Michael Kumhof, 2010. "Budget Consolidation; Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain," IMF Working Papers 10/163, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/163
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2010. "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung. Jahresgutachten 2010/11," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201011.
    2. Irina BILAN & Florin OPREA, 2012. "EU fiscal consolidation strategies in times of crisis – comparative approaches," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 887-894, May.
    3. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    4. Senay Agca & Deniz O Igan, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Cost of Credit; Evidence from Syndicated Loans," IMF Working Papers 13/36, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bertrand Gruss & Jose L. Torres, 2012. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 12/38, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
    7. Mai Dao & Prakash Loungani, 2010. "The Human Cost of Recessions; Assessing It, Reducing It," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/17, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 1. How Much is Needed and How to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 932, OECD Publishing.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Iceland; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/304, International Monetary Fund.

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