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External Finance, Sudden Stops, and Financial Crisis: What is Different This Time?

  • F. Gulcin Ozkan
  • D. Filiz Unsal

This paper develops a two-country DSGE model to investigate the transmission of a global financial crisis to a small open economy. We find that economies hit by a sudden stop arising from financial distress in the global economy are likely to face a more prolonged crisis than sudden stop episodes of domestic origin. Moreover, in contrast to the existing literature, our results suggest that the greater a country's trade integration with the rest of the world, the greater the response of its macroeconomic aggregates to a sudden stop of capital flows.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/158.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/158
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  1. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Elekdag, Selim & Tchakarov, Ivan, 2007. "Balance sheets, exchange rate policy, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3986-4015, December.
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  7. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November.
  10. Philippe Martin & Hélène Rey, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," NBER Working Papers 11550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  13. Naug, Bjorn & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. " Pricing to Market in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(3), pages 329-50.
  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Vasco Cúrdia, 2007. "Monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 278, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  17. Vasco Cúrdia, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 323, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Michael Bleaney, 2005. "The Aftermath of a Currency Collapse: How Different are Emerging Markets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 79-89, 01.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1998. "The Dangers of Exchange-Rate Pegging in Emerging-Market Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 81-101, October.
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