The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions
This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIsâ€™ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Rodolfo A. Oviedo, 2004.
"The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Fathi Abid & Nader Naifar, 2006. "The Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Rates: An Explanatory Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 23-42.
- Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
- Martijn Cremers & Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout & David Weinbaum, 2004.
"Individual Stock-Option Prices and Credit Spreads,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2391, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2005.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 1998. "The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2225-2241, December.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W Marsh, 2004.
"An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment-grade bonds and credit default swaps,"
Bank of England working papers
211, Bank of England.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment grade bonds and credit default swaps," Working Papers 0401, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Fabozzi, Frank J. & Cheng, Xiaolin & Chen, Ren-Raw, 2007. "Exploring the components of credit risk in credit default swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 10-18, March.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Koetter, Michael & Kick, Thomas, 2007.
"Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking,"
Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
- Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 469-499, August.
- Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010.
"Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
- Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- James B. Thomson, 2009. "On systemically important financial institutions and progressive systemic mitigation," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
- Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.