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Estimating Poland's Potential Output; A Production Function Approach

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  • Natan P. Epstein
  • Corrado Macchiarelli

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Natan P. Epstein & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2010. "Estimating Poland's Potential Output; A Production Function Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/15, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krasnopjorovs, Olegs, 2013. "Latvijas ekonomikas izaugsmi noteicošie faktori
      [Factors of Economic Growth in Latvia]
      ," MPRA Paper 47550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan’s Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    3. Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2014. "Transitions in labour market status in EU labour markets," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 13/145, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 124-144.
    6. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Краснопёров, Олег, 2012. "Оценка Производственной Функции В Условиях Неопределённости Динамики Физического Капитала
      [Assessing the production function under the uncertainty of dynamics of the fixed capital]
      ," MPRA Paper 47555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2013. "Transitions in labour market status in the European Union," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 69, European Institute, LSE.
    9. Dana Kloudová, 2016. "Does Using Nairu In The Production Function Influence Estimation Of Potential Output And Output Gap?," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, June.
    10. Xu, Kun & Xu, Wenli, 2015. "中国政府消费支出对经济波动的传导机理分析
      [Study on Influential Mechanism Between Government Expenditure of Consumption and Economic Fluctuation]
      ," MPRA Paper 70994, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.
    11. Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E. & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Transitions in Labour Market Status in the EU," IZA Discussion Papers 7814, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Poland; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 11/167, International Monetary Fund.
    13. El-Baz, Osama, 2016. "Estimating Egypt’s Potential Output: A Production Function Approach," MPRA Paper 71652, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 May 2016.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Economic models; Employment; Poland; Productivity; Production growth; Unemployment; Production function; potential growth; output gap; NAIRU; unemployment rate; rate of unemployment;

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