Vietnam; Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shekhar Aiyar & Ivan Tchakarov, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth," IMF Working Papers 08/140, International Monetary Fund.
- Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998.
"Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2,"
1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
- Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Ozbek, Levent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005.
"Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1611-1622, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Ozbek and Ozlale state space model with time-varying coefficients," Statistical Software Components RTZ00128, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.