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Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different cross sections of countries are tested or when different regression variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US inflation, and—depending on the subset of countries analyzed—monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 10/135, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/135
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    1. Al-Mashat Rania & Billmeier Andreas, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 32-82, September.
    2. Bonato Leo, 2008. "Money and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 41-58, January.
    3. Assaf Razin, 2004. "Globalization and Disinflation: A Note," NBER Working Papers 10954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Yuen, Jude, 2002. "Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 603-619, September.
    5. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
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    1. repec:pid:journl:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:543-559 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Commodities; Central banks and their policies; Energy; Inflation; Monetary policy; money supply; aggregate demand; money growth; International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions; Financial Aspects of Economic Integration;

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