IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework; An Application to Low-Income Countries

Listed author(s):
  • Andrew Berg
  • Filiz D Unsal
  • Rafael Portillo

Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23928
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/134.

as
in new window

Length: 31
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/134
Contact details of provider: Postal:
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 464-490, 08.
  2. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  4. Thomas Harjes & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2010. "A Bayesian-Estimated Model of Inflation Targeting in South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 407-426, June.
  5. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 691-720, April.
  7. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
  8. Lippi, Francesco & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "Information variables for monetary policy in an estimated structural model of the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1256-1270, May.
  9. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1224-1245.
  10. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
  11. Policy Analyst - UNICEF Zimbabwe, 2002. "Evidence on the demand for money function in Uganda," Development and Comp Systems 0210005, EconWPA.
  12. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
  13. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2007. "Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1132-1162, May.
  14. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, July.
  15. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Charalambos Christofides & Atish R. Ghosh & Uma Ramakrishnan & Alun H. Thomas & Laura Papi & Juan Zalduendo & Jun I Kim, 2005. "The Design of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Occasional Papers 241, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  18. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2004. "Indicator variables for optimal policy under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 661-690, January.
  19. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis—Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  21. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
  22. Luis-Felipe Zanna & Andrew Berg & Tokhir Mirzoev & Rafael Portillo, 2010. "The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows; Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy," IMF Working Papers 10/65, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Samuel Andoh & David Chappell, 2002. "Stability of the money demand function: evidence from Ghana," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 875-878.
  24. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda," IMF Working Papers 01/118, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2008. "Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15.
  26. Shanaka J Peiris & Magnus Saxegaard, 2007. "An Estimated DSGE Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/282, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Rother, Philipp C, 1999. "Money Demand in the West African Economic and Monetary Union--The Problems of Aggregation," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 422-447, October.
  28. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.