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Canada's Potential Growth; Another Victim of the Crisis?

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  • Marcello M. Estevão
  • Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in the short term. The estimated decline of about 1 percentage point originates from a sharply decelerating capital stock accumulation (as investment has dropped steeply) and a rising long-term unemployment rate (which would raise equilibrium unemployment rates). However, over the medium term, we expect Canada's potential GDP growth to gradually rise to around 2 percent, below the pre-crisis growth rate, mostly reflecting the effects of population aging and a secular decline in average working hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello M. Estevão & Evridiki Tsounta, 2010. "Canada's Potential Growth; Another Victim of the Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 10/13, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/13
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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
    2. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Chile; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/299, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ghamz-e-Ali Siyal & Asma Mohsin & Khalid Zaman, 2014. "Financial Soundness and Pakistan’s Economics Growth: Turn on the Light," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 2(9), pages 359-371, September.
    5. Mirajul Haq & Karim Khan & Ayesha Parveen, 2014. "The Growth and Employment Impacts of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis on Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 129-154, July-Dec.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Financial crisis; Capital accumulation; Canada; Labor productivity; Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009; Gross domestic product; Unemployment; potential growth; TFP; nairu; labor force participation; labor force;

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