Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries
Across a sample of thirty four emerging countries, the evidence shows the frequent existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal impulse. However, the scope for countercyclical policy increases with the availability of international reserves as it enhances credibility and mitigates concerns about the effect of expansionary fiscal policy on the cost of borrowing and debt service. The paper also examines the effectiveness of the fiscal policy in emerging countries in the short- and long-run and its underlying conditions, which does not appear to be uniform. In some cases, contractionary fiscal policy could stimulate growth in the short-run, if fiscal tightness lowers the cost of borrowing and debt service, and mitigates concerns about debt sustainability. However, an increase in international reserves is evident to mitigate these concerns. On the other hand, high inflation increases concerns about the impact of fiscal spending on inflationary expectations and the cost of borrowing, countering the effectiveness of the fiscal stimulus on output growth in the short-run. Where the debt burden is high, fiscal expansion has a longlasting negative effect on real growth.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1997.
"Fiscal Rules and the Budget Process,"
Giornale degli Economisti,
GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-40, June.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009.
"Fiscal Policy For The Crisis,"
Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 26-32, 07.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Cottarelli, Carlo & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Symansky, Steven, 2009. "Fiscal Policy for the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Steven A. Symansky & Carlo Cottarelli & Olivier J Blanchard, 2009. "Fiscal Policy for the Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2008/01, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lane, Philip R, 2003.
"Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
- Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/253, International Monetary Fund.
- Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Romain Ranciere & Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries; Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund.
- Kandil, Magda, 2006. "Variation in the effects of government spending shocks with methods of financing: Evidence from the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-486.
- Kandil, Magda, 2009.
"Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 261-276.
- Magda E. Kandil, 2000. "Demand-Side Stabilization Policies; What is the Evidence of their Potential?," IMF Working Papers 00/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Magda Kandil, 2005. "On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 269-304.
- repec:eme:jespps:v:33:y:2006:i:6:p:406-436 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.