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Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?

  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Dalia Hakura

This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/122.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/122
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  1. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2001. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 01/171, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? T+L3886he Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/167, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "International Evidenceon Recovery From Recessions," IMF Working Papers 09/183, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
  6. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis: Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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