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Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan; Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?

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  • Francesco Grigoli
  • Dalia S Hakura

Abstract

This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries’ recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries’ recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Grigoli & Dalia S Hakura, 2010. "Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan; Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Effective?," IMF Working Papers 10/122, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/167, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Middle East; Monetary policy; North Africa; Pakistan; Recessions; recoveries; investments; hydrocarbon exporting countries; trade openness; recession; export growth; exporters; real export growth;

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