IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries


  • Kareem Ismail


This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The results on oil-exporting countries are four folds. First, we find that permanent increases in oil price negatively impact output in manufacturing as consistent with the Dutch disease. Second, Evidence in the data shows that oil windfall shocks have a stronger impact on manufacturing sectors in countries with more open capital markets to foreign investment. Third, we find that the relative factor price of labor to capital, and capital intensity in manufacturing sectors appreciate as windfall increases. Fourth, we find that manufacturing sectors with higher capital intensity are less affected by windfall shocks than their peers, possibly due to a larger share of the effect being absorbed by more laborintensive tradable sectors. An implication of the fourth result is that having diverse manufacturing sectors in capital intensity helps cushion the volatility of oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’; The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/103

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
    3. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(3), pages 513-542.
    4. Charlotta Groth & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "Investment Adjustment Costs: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1494, December.
    5. Baldwin, John R. & Gellatly, Guy, 2006. "Innovation Capabilities: The Knowledge Capital Behind the Survival and Growth of Firms," The Canadian Economy in Transition 2006013e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division.
    6. Nazim Belhocine, 2008. "Treating Intangible Inputs as Investment Goods: the Impact on Canadian GDP," Working Papers 1215, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862 Elsevier.
    8. John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2003. "Technological Change and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1240-1267, September.
    9. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December.
    10. Adams, James D, 1990. "Fundamental Stocks of Knowledge and Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 673-702, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.