Chileâ€™s Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule; A Model-Based Evaluation
The paper analyzes Chile's structural balance fiscal rule in the face of copper price shocks originating in foreign copper demand. It uses a version of the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) that includes a copper sector. Two results are obtained. First, Chile's current fiscal rule performs well if the policymaker puts a small weight on output volatility (relative to inflation volatility) in his/her objective function. A more aggressive countercyclical fiscal rule can attain lower output volatility, but there is a trade-off with (somewhat) higher inflation volatility and (much) higher volatility of fiscal variables. Second, given its current stock of government assets, Chile's adoption of a 0.5% surplus target starting in 2008 is desirable from a business cycle perspective. This is because the earlier 1% target would have required significant further asset accumulation that could only have been accomplished at the expense of greater volatility in fiscal instruments and therefore in GDP.
|Date of creation:||01 Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985.
"Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
- Christopher Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2005.
"Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
128, Society for Computational Economics.
- Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005.
"Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003.
"Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
- Ireland, Peter N., 2001.
"Sticky-price models of the business cycle: Specification and stability,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-18, February.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 426, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the US Trade Deficit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 363-397, December.
- Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2005. "On the aggregate labor supply," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 21-37.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003.
"New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.