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Assessing Exchange Rate Competitiveness in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

  • Emilio Pineda
  • Paul Cashin
  • Yan Sun

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange rate approach is used to explore sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in ECCU countries. And third, a macroeconomic balance approach is used to estimate equilibrium current account or current account "norms". The main finding of these analyses is that there is little evidence of overvaluation of the EC dollar. Furthermore, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the distinctive impact of tourism in determining real exchange rates through the wealth effect induced by tourism-driven increases in terms of trade and productivity.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/78.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/78
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  1. Mark Lewis & Aurélie Martin & Gabriel Di Bella, 2007. "Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/201, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  3. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  4. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. repec:imf:imfwpa:95/12 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  7. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  9. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  11. repec:imf:imfwpa:06/236 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Magnus Saxegaard & Stéphane Roudet & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2007. "Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Waemu: A Robustness Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/194, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  16. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  17. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  18. repec:imf:imfwpa:03/44 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  21. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  22. Joannes Mongardini & Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/90, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2003. "An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1.
  24. Tokarick, Stephen, 2008. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 60-62, October.
  25. repec:imf:imfwpa:01/174 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  28. Nishaal Gooroochurn & Adam Blake, 2005. "Tourism Immiserization: Fact or Fiction?," Working Papers 2005.143, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  29. Paul Cashin & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2000. "Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?," IMF Working Papers 00/72, International Monetary Fund.
  30. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  31. Jörg Breitung & Samarjit Das, 2005. "Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 59(4), pages 414-433.
  32. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  33. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
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