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Australia and New Zealand Exchange Rates; A Quantitative Assessment

Author

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  • Hali J Edison
  • Francis Vitek

Abstract

The paper describes three empirical models commonly used to conduct exchange rate assessments and applies them to data for Australia and New Zealand. The baseline results using data and mediumterm projections available as of October 2008, suggest that the Australian and New Zealand dollars were broadly in line with fundamentals, but with a wide variation across models. A battery of sensitivity tests illustrate that altering the underlying assumptions can yield substantially different assessments. The results are particularly sensitive to the choice of assessment horizon, the set of economies included in the sample, medium-term forecasts, and the exchange rate reference period.

Suggested Citation

  • Hali J Edison & Francis Vitek, 2009. "Australia and New Zealand Exchange Rates; A Quantitative Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/7, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2005. "Australia's Medium-Run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 101-112, June.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
    5. Lamin Y Leigh & Steven V Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates; The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    7. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    10. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2000. "A macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2017. "Symmetry, proportionality and productivity bias hypothesis: evidence from panel-VAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 79-93, February.
    2. Ojeda Joya, Jair & Torres, Jhon Edwar, 2012. "Posición externa de largo plazo y tipo de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, October.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Papua New Guinea; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/113, International Monetary Fund.
    4. James Graham & Daan Steenkamp, 2012. "Extending the Reserve Bank’s macroeconomic balance model of the exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Miles Workman, 2015. "Estimating the Cyclically- and Absorption-adjusted Fiscal Balance for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/09, New Zealand Treasury.

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