From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area
The global financial crisis has highlighted the potential of financial conditions for influencing real economic activity. We examine the linkages between the financial and real sectors in the euro area, finding that (i) bank loan supply responds negatively to declines in bank soundness; (ii) a cutback in bank loan supply has a negative impact on economic activity; (iii) a positive shock to the corporate bond spread lowers industrial output; and (iv) risk indicators for the banking, corporate, and public sectors show an improvement beginning in 2002â€“03, followed by a major deterioration since 2007. These estimates imply that the currently estimated bank losses would subtract some 2 percentage points from the euro area output (but with considerable uncertainty around the estimates).
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htmEmail:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999.
"The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy,
Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
- Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John C. Driscoll, 2003.
"Does bank lending affect output? evidence from the U.S. states,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Driscoll, John C., 2004. "Does bank lending affect output? Evidence from the U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 451-471, April.
- Kakes, Jan & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2002.
"Monetary policy and bank lending:: Evidence from German banking groups,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2077-2092, November.
- Jan Kakes & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2001. "Monetary policy and bank lending. Evidence from German banking groups," MEB Series (discontinued) 2001-1, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund.
- Altunbas, Yener & Fazylov, Otabek & Molyneux, Philip, 2002. "Evidence on the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2093-2110, November.
- Christian Keller & Peter Kunzel & Marcos Souto, 2007. "Measuring Sovereign Risk in Turkey; An Application of the Contingent Claims Approach," IMF Working Papers 07/233, International Monetary Fund.
- Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007.
"New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability,"
NBER Working Papers
13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dale F. Gray; & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2009. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 541, Central Bank of Chile.
- Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework; Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
- Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary transmission in the euro area: early evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 469-501, October.
- Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002.
"The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Housing Market,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
541, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Aug 2003.
- Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
- Bruggeman, Annick & Donnay, Marie, 2003. "A monthly monetary model with banking intermediation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0264, European Central Bank.
- Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Christian Keller & Mark Allen & Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/210, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
- Yingbin Xiao & Dale F. Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis; Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 04/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Martin CihÃ¡k, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.