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Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

  • Douglas Laxton
  • Alasdair Scott
  • David Rose

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/65.

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Length: 67
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/65
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  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 09/94, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," 2007 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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