Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?
The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals'' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that ''end times'' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Russett, Bruce & Slemrod, Joel, 1993.
"Diminished Expectations of Nuclear War and Increased Personal Savings: Evidence from Individual Survey Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1022-33, September.
- Bruce Russett & Joel Slemrod, 1992. "Diminished Expectations of Nuclear War and Increased Personal Savings: Evidence From Individual Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 4031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Zheng Song & Giovanni Favara, 2009. "House Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Expectations," 2009 Meeting Papers 775, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Scheve, Kenneth & Stasavage, David, 2006. "Religion and Preferences for Social Insurance," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 1(3), pages 255-286, July.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan, 2008.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From the Subprime Mortgage Market,"
IMF Working Papers
08/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards : Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004.
"How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
- Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2013.
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,
American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 167-99, November.
- McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth across Countries," Scholarly Articles 3708464, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Shiller, 2007.
"Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1630, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2007.
- Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
- Shiller, Robert J., 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Working Papers 28, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence R. Iannaccone, 1998. "Introduction to the Economics of Religion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1465-1495, September.
- George A. Akerlof & Rachel E. Kranton, 2000. "Economics And Identity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(3), pages 715-753, August.
- Robert Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2557, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2007.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.