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A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries

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  • Paulo A Medas
  • Daria V Zakharova

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo A Medas & Daria V Zakharova, 2009. "A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/56, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/56
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    1. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J Venables, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign wealth funds and optimal tradeoffs between citizen dividends, public infrastructure and debt reduction," OxCarre Working Papers 009, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
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    3. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies; Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-15, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Michael Gavin, 1997. "A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6429, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Nada Choueiri & Klaus-Stefan Enders & Yuri V Sobolev & Jan Walliser & Sherwyn Williams, 2002. "Yemen in the 1990s; From Unification to Economic Reform," IMF Occasional Papers 208, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Michael Gavin, 1997. "A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?," Research Department Publications 4076, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Michael Gavin, 1997. "A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6206, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Qing Wang & Ugo Fasano-Filho, 2002. "Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue; Evidence From GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/201, International Monetary Fund.
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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Commodity price fluctuations; Cross country analysis; Oil producing countries; Oil revenues; Revenue sources; Nonoil sector; resource revenue; oil prices; fiscal sustainability; fiscal indicators; oil reserves;

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