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Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns; Evidence From the G7

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  • Sven Jari Stehn
  • Daniel Leigh

Abstract

This paper analyzes how fiscal and monetary policy typically respond during downturns in G7 countries. It evaluates whether discretionary fiscal responses to downturns are timely and temporary, and compares the response of fiscal policy to that of monetary policy. The results suggest that while responding more weakly and less quickly than monetary policy, discretionary fiscal policy is more timely than conventional wisdom would suggest, particularly in “Anglo-Saxon” countries, but the response differs substantially across fiscal instruments. Both fiscal and monetary policy are found to be subject to an easing bias, with more easing during downturns than tightening during upturns; and liable to easing in response to erroneously perceived downturns, many of which are subsequently revised to expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sven Jari Stehn & Daniel Leigh, 2009. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns; Evidence From the G7," IMF Working Papers 09/50, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 1661-1707.
    5. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    6. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Research in fiscal policy: A cross section
      by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-05-11 21:26:30

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Antonio Cerón Cruz, 2011. "¿Qué preocupa a los gobiernos, la brecha de producción o el PIB?," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 12, pages 199-205.
    2. Balázs Égert, 2014. "Fiscal policy reaction to the cycle in the OECD: pro- or counter-cyclical?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 35-52.
    3. Roberta Moreira Wichmann & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2014. "Política Fiscal Assimétrica: O Caso Do Brasil," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    5. Anthony J. Makin, 2015. "Expansionary Versus Contractionary Government Spending," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 56-65, January.
    6. Ross Guest & Anthony J Makin, 2012. "Fiscal stimulus: an overlapping generations analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, September.
    7. Karin Mayr & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Asymmetric Fiscal Stabilization Policy and the Public Deficit: Theory and Evidence," Vienna Economics Papers 0908, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:3:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ross Guest & Anthony J. Makin, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in a Two Sector Open Economy," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_045, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Wichmann, Roberta Moreira & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2013. "Política Fiscal Assimétrica: O Caso do Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(3), September.
    11. Anthony J. Makin, 2010. "Did Australia's Fiscal Stimulus Counter Recession?: Evidence from the National Accounts," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 5-16.
    12. Cerón, Juan A., 2012. "La respuesta de la política fiscal a la actividad económica en los países desarrollados/Fiscal policy reaction to economic activity in developed countries," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 369(32)-369, Abril.
    13. Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye & Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte, 2012. "Politiques macroéconomiques et stabilisation des chocs dans la zone UEMOA," Working Papers halshs-00830595, HAL.
    14. Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE & Cheikh Tidiane NDIAYE, 2012. "Politiques macroéconomiques et stabilisation des chocs dans la zone UEMOA," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1340, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2015. "The Timing and Responsiveness of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle in Germany," MPRA Paper 68412, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Economic stabilization; Fiscal policy; Cross country analysis; Revenues; Monetary policy; Group of seven; Fiscal stabilization; government revenue; government expenditure; tax changes; discretionary fiscal policy; fiscal stimulus; tax cuts;

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