IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/09-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Second Transition; Eastern Europe in Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Leigh
  • Stefania Fabrizio
  • Ashoka Mody

Abstract

The countries of Eastern Europe achieved two remarkable transitions in the short period of the last two decades: from plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and financial market integration. Focusing on the second transition, this paper reaches three conclusions. First, by several metrics, East European and East Asian growth performances were about on par from the mid-1990s; both regions far surpassed Latin American growth. Second, the mechanisms of growth in East Europe and East Asia were, however, very different. East Europe relied on a distinctive-often discredited-model, embracing financial integration with structural change to compensate for appreciating real exchange rates. In contrast, East Asia contained further financial integration and maintained steady or depreciating real exchange rates. Third, the ongoing financial turbulence has, thus far, not had an obviously differential impact on emerging market regions: rather, the hot spots in each region reflect individual country vulnerabilities. If the East European growth model is distinctive, is it sustainable and replicable? The paper speculates on the possibilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Leigh & Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2009. "The Second Transition; Eastern Europe in Perspective," IMF Working Papers 09/43, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22708
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Can budget institutions counteract political indiscipline?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 689-739, October.
    3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Deniz O Igan & Stefania Fabrizio, 2007. "The Dynamics of Product Quality and International Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 07/97, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    6. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2010. "Breaking The Impediments To Budgetary Reforms: Evidence From Europe," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 362-391, November.
    7. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    8. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2006. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for economic development," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 119-158.
    9. Susan M Schadler & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 07/65, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    11. Winkler, Adalbert & Herrmann, Sabine, 2008. "Real convergence, financial markets and the current account - emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Occasional Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcin, Piatkowski, 2009. "The Coming Golden Age of New Europe," MPRA Paper 19523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Adalbert Winkler, 2012. "The Financial Crisis: A Wake-up Call for Strengthening Regional Monitoring of Financial Markets and Regional Coordination of Financial Sector Policies?," Chapters,in: Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Karsten Staehr, 2017. "Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2016-10, Bank of Estonia, revised 06 Feb 2017.
    4. Ruben Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the crisis: revisiting emerging Europe’s growth model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 329-356.
    5. Emil Panusheff, 2011. "The effect of the milieu and the financial crisis on the economic stability of the EU Member States," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 64-80.
    6. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eastern Europe; Cross country analysis; Economic growth; Emerging markets; European Union; International trade; Trade; Transition economies; Growth; Transition; and Financial Integration; exchange rate; real exchange rate; trade openness; exchange rates; exchange rate appreciation;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.