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Commodity Price Volatility, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Convergence: What is Ahead for Inflation in Emerging Europe?

  • Edda Zoli
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    This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/41.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/41
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    1. Balázs Egert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation Differentials in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2127, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Céline Allard, 2007. "Inflation in Poland: How Much Can Globalization Explain?," IMF Working Papers 07/41, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    4. Balázs �gert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    5. Mark J Flanagan & Felix Hammermann, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," IMF Working Papers 07/189, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2007. "Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 551, OECD Publishing.
    7. Lein-Rupprecht, Sarah M. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nerlich, Carolin, 2007. "How is real convergence driving nominal convergence in the new EU Member States?," Working Paper Series 0827, European Central Bank.
    8. Felix Hammermann & Mark Flanagan, 2007. "What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?," Kiel Working Papers 1373, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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