The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-Up Aid: The Case of Niger
We develop a simple macroeconomic model that assesses the effects of higher foreign aid on output growth and other macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. The model is easily tractable and requires estimation of only a few basic parameters. It takes into account the impact of aid on physical and human capital accumulation, while recognizing that the impact of the latter is more protracted. Application of the model to Niger-one of the poorest countries in the world-suggests that if foreign aid as a share of GDP were to be permanently increased from the equivalent of 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to 15 percent in 2008, annual economic growth would accelerate by more than 1 percentage point, without generating significant risks for macroeconomic stability. As a result, by 2020 Niger's income per capita would be 12.5 percent higher than it would be without increased foreign aid. Moreover, the higher growth would help Niger to cut the incidence of poverty by 25 percent by 2015, although the country will still be unable to reach the Millennium Development Goal of poverty reduction (MDG 1).
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matteo Bobba & Andrew Powell, 2007. "Aid and Growth: Politics Matters," Research Department Publications 4511, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Griffin, Keith B & Enos, J L, 1970. "Foreign Assistance: Objectives and Consequences," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 313-27, April.
- David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000.
"Aid, Policies, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
- Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005.
"Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
IMF Working Papers
05/127, International Monetary Fund.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does The Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Working Papers id:54, eSocialSciences.
- Claudio Montenegro & A. Senhadji Semlali, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004.
"Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth,"
- Michael Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting Chickens When They Hatch: The Short-term Effect of Aid on Growth," Working Papers 44, Center for Global Development.
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," NBER Working Papers 11657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010.
"Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
- Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Development Aid and Economic Growth: A Positive Long-Run Relation," IMF Working Papers 09/118, International Monetary Fund.
- Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2006. "Development Aid and Economic Growth: A Positive Long-Run Relation," Working Papers 29, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Emanuele Baldacci & Qiang Cui & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries: Implications for Achieving the MDGs," IMF Working Papers 04/217, International Monetary Fund.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005.
"Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa : a macroeconomic monitoring framework,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3750, The World Bank.
- Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
- Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "The productivy Effects of Public Capital in Developing Countries," Post-Print halshs-00257440, HAL.
- Papanek, Gustav F, 1973. "Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings, and Growth in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(1), pages 120-30, Jan.-Feb..
- Martin MÃ¼hleisen & Dhaneshwar Ghura & Roger Nord & Michael T. Hadjimichael & E. Murat Ucer, 1995. "Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth, Savings, and Investment, 1986-93," IMF Occasional Papers 118, International Monetary Fund.
- R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
- Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
- C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.