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The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards: An Assessment Using a Dsge Model

  • Silvia Sgherri
  • Bertrand Gruss

The ongoing financial turmoil has triggered a lively debate on ways of containing systemic risk and lessening the likelihood of boom-and-bust episodes in credit markets. Particularly, it has been argued that banking regulation might attenuate procyclicality in lending standards by affecting the behavior of banks’ capital buffers. This paper uses a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to illustrate how procyclicality in borrowing limits reinforces the “overreaction†of asset prices to shocks described by Aiyagari and Gertler (1999), and to quantify the stabilization gains from policies aimed at smoothing cyclical swings in credit conditions. Results suggest that, in financially constrained economies, the ensuing volatility reduction in equity prices, investment, and external imbalances would be sizable. In the presence of cross-border spillovers, gains would be even higher.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/35.

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Length: 37
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/35
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  1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
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  9. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0712, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2006. "International business cycles with domestic and foreign lenders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2267-2282, November.
  12. Asea, P.K. & Blomberg, S.B., 1997. "Lending Cycles," Papers 97-01, Wellesley College - Department of Economics.
  13. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2007. "The Cyclical Behaviour of European Bank Capital Buffers," SIFR Research Report Series 56, Institute for Financial Research.
  14. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ayuso, Juan & Perez, Daniel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 249-264, April.
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  17. Aiyagari, S.R. & Gertler, M., 1998. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Working Papers 98-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  24. Ghironi, Fabio & Iscan, Talan B. & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2008. "Net foreign asset positions and consumption dynamics in the international economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1337-1359, December.
  25. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002. "Financial Liberalisation and the Sensitivity of House Prices to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 538, Boston College Department of Economics.
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  27. Enrique G. Mendoza & Katherine A. Smith, 2004. "Quantitative Implication of A Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 10940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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