IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/09-33.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Rudolfs Bems
  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho

Abstract

Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When aggregated over the sample countries, precautionary savings in 2006 add up to 3.2 percent of GDP. The quantitative importance of the precautionary motive varies considerably across the sample countries and is driven primarily by the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income. The parameterized model fares well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudolfs Bems & Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, 2009. "Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources," IMF Working Papers 09/33, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22648
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    3. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The Great Moderation and the U.S. External Imbalance," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 209-225, December.
    4. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-185.
    5. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    6. Robin Sickles & Peter Hartley, 2001. "A Model of Optimal Dynamic Oil Extraction: Evidence From a Large Middle Eastern Field," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 59-71, January.
    7. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    8. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 113-131.
    2. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201510131420 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    4. Ton S van den Bremer & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2013. "Managing and Harnessing Volatile Oil Windfalls," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 130-167, April.
    5. Olusegun Akanbi, 2015. "Fiscal policy and current account in an oil-rich economy: the case of Nigeria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1563-1585, June.
    6. Robert C York & Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/207, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    8. Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 105-116.
    9. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    10. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2015. "The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 32-50, July.
    11. Rick van der Ploeg, 2014. "Guidelines for exploiting natural resource wealth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 145-169.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.