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Trade and Thy Neighbor’s War

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  • Mahvash S Qureshi

Abstract

This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict-reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of foregone trade as a result of spillovers from conflict in neighboring countries. The magnitude of this negative externality is somewhat larger for international conflicts than intrastate warfare, but about one-third of conflict in the host economies. Further, the impact is persistent-on average, it takes bilateral trade three years to recover from the end of intrastate conflicts in neighboring states, and five years from international conflicts. These findings are robust to alternate definitions of conflict, estimation methods, and specifications, and underscore the importance of taking into account spillover effects when estimating the economic costs of warfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahvash S Qureshi, 2009. "Trade and Thy Neighbor’s War," IMF Working Papers 09/283, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bluhm, Richard & Gassebner, Martin & Langlotz, Sarah & Schaudt, Paul, 2016. "Fueling conflict? : (De)escalation and bilateral aid," MERIT Working Papers 053, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:484-495 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. D'Souza, Anna, 2014. "Conflict and Trade: Implications for Agriculture and Food Security," Proceedings Issues, 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014, San Diego, California 197200, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Massimiliano Calì & Wissam Harake & Fadi Hassan & Clemens Struck, 2015. "The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21914, The World Bank.
    5. Pham, Cong S. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2017. "An Injury to One Is an Injury to All: Terrorism's Spillover Effects on Bilateral Trade," IZA Discussion Papers 10859, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Regional shocks; Political economy; International trade; conflict; contiguous states; bilateral trade; international conflict; international conflicts; trade flows; civil war;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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