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Exchange Rate Assessments; Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries

Author

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  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
  • Rudolfs Bems

Abstract

Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments; Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Chad; 2016 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/274, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    4. Cuiabano, Simone & Opoku-Afari, Maxwell, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and monetary integration in the EAC contries," TSE Working Papers 17-848, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Robert C York & Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/207, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2014. "Long-run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," MPRA Paper 59571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2014.
    7. Jordi Prat & Leandro Medina & Alun H. Thomas, 2010. "Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 10/43, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Steven T Phillips & Luis Catão & Luca A Ricci & Rudolfs Bems & Mitali Das & Julian Di Giovanni & Filiz D Unsal & Marola Castillo & Jungjin Lee & Jair Rodriguez & Mauricio Vargas, 2013. "The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology," IMF Working Papers 13/272, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2016. "External Adjustment in Oil Exporters; The Role of Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 16/107, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price fluctuations; Current account; Exchange rates; Economic models; Oil revenues; Oil prices; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Fiscal policy; Oil exporting countries; misalignment; exporting countries; oil exporters; oil-exporting countries; exporters;

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