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Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries

  • Hanan Morsy

The paper aims at characterizing the main determinants of the medium-term current account balance for oil-exporting countries using dynamic panel estimation techniques. Previous studies included a very limited number of oil-exporting countries in their samples, raising concerns about the applicability of the estimated coefficients for oil countries. Furthermore, current approaches are not specifically tailored to oil-producing countries because they fail to capture the effects of oil wealth and the degree of maturity in oil production. This paper explores the underlying determinants of the current account balance for a large sample of oilexporting countries, and extends the specifications commonly used in the literature to include an oil wealth variable, as well as a proxy for the degree of maturity in oil production. The paper therefore contributes to the existing literature both in terms of the sample studied as well as the variables considered. The results reveal that factors that matter in determining the equilibrium current account balance of oil-exporting counties are the fiscal balance, the oil balance, oil wealth, age dependency, and the degree of maturity in oil production.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/28.

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Length: 15
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/28
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  1. Ph.R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 80, Netherlands Central Bank.
  2. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  3. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
  4. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 51, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Africa: Stylized Facts and Basic Determinants," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 191-221.
  6. Peter Isard, 2007. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Assessment Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 07/296, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  8. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  9. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  10. repec:imf:imfwpa:96/58 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. G. Russell Kincaid & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Serven, Luis & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "An empirical macroeconomic model for policy design : the case of Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 709, The World Bank.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  15. repec:imf:imfwpa:02/51 is not listed on IDEAS
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