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How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
  • Nadeem Ilahi
  • Fahad Alturki

Abstract

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Espinosa-Bowen & Nadeem Ilahi & Fahad Alturki, 2009. "How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels," IMF Working Papers 09/277, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nadeem Ilahi & Riham Shendy, 2008. "Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? The Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows," IMF Working Papers 08/167, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Vivek B. Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "The Implications of South African Economic Growth for the Rest of Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/58, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
    4. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    6. Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones & Eswar S Prasad, 2003. "Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 03/246, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    2. Huidrom, Raju & Kose, Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2017. "How Important are Spillovers from Major Emerging Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hillebrand, Evan & Bervoets, Jeremy, 2013. "Economic Sanctions and The Sanctions Paradox: A Post-Sample Validation of Daniel Drezner’s Conflict Expectations Model," MPRA Paper 50954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:taf:ceasxx:v:65:y:2013:i:4:p:682-716 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Uruguay; Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2017. "What’s Mine Is Yours: Sovereign Risk Transmission during the European Debt Crisis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    7. Gevorkyan, Aleksandr V., 2015. "The legends of the Caucasus: Economic transformation of Armenia and Georgia," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1009-1024.
    8. Aivazian, Sergei & Bereznyatskiy, Alexander & Brodsky, Boris, 2014. "Dutch disease in Russian and Armenian economies," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 36(4), pages 32-60.

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