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Today Versus tomorrow; The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income

  • Alun H. Thomas
  • Tamim Bayoumi

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/248.

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Length: 17
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/248
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  1. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Scholarly Articles 3353762, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Norman Loayza, 1999. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 51, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alun H. Thomas & Jun Il Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/198, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2006. "Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2007. "Incomplete Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Incomplete Risksharing," Discussion Paper Series 0725, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Michael W. Klein, 1997. "A Provincial View of Economic Integration," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 534-556, December.
  8. Alonso Segura, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis; The Case of Sao tome and Principe," IMF Working Papers 06/183, International Monetary Fund.
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