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Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Deficits

  • Michael Kumhof
  • Douglas Laxton

The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50 percent of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75 percent for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100 percent for a small open economy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/237.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/237
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, David & Vallés, Javier, 2004. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Working Paper Series 0339, European Central Bank.
  3. Roubini, N., 1989. "Current Account And Budget Deficits In An Intertemporal Model Of Consumption And Taxation Smoothing. A Solution To The "Feldstein-Horioka" Puzzel," Papers 569, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
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  6. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Expansionary fiscal shocks and the trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 825, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover?on the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2010. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1562-1579, December.
  9. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Macroeconomic Interdependence under Incomplete Markets," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 471, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2003.
  10. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2006. "Mr. Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," IMF Working Papers 06/168, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
  13. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF): Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Working Papers 11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
  16. Lane, P.R. & Ganelli, G., 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," CEG Working Papers 20026, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  17. Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Understanding Macroeconomic Interdependence: Do We Really Need to Shut Off the Current Account?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 465, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Aug 2003.
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