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Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy

  • Paul Levine
  • Joseph Pearlman
  • Nicoletta Batini

We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the ''three pillars macroeconomic policy framework'': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such monetary-fiscal rules need to be adjusted to accommodate specific features of emerging market economies. The model takes the form of two-blocs, a DSGE emerging small open economy interacting with the rest of the world and features, in particular, financial frictions It is calibrated using Chile and US data. Alongside the optimal Ramsey policy benchmark, we model the three pillars as simple monetary and fiscal rules including and both domestic and CPI inflation targeting interest rate rules alongside a ''Structural Surplus Fiscal Rule'' as followed recently in Chile. A comparison with a fixed exchange rate regime is made. We find that domestic inflation targeting is superior to partially or implicitly (through a CPI inflation target) or fully attempting to stabilizing the exchange rate. Financial frictions require fiscal policy to play a bigger role and lead to an increase in the costs associated with simple rules as opposed to the fully optimal policy.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/22.

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Length: 78
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/22
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  1. Tatiana Kirsanova & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2006. " Optimal Fiscal Feedback on Debt in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0609, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
  4. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John C. Williams & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in micro-founded macroeconometric models," Working Paper Series 2005-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Aoki, Kosuke & Kimura, Takeshi, 2007. "Uncertainty about perceived inflation target and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521441964 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2008. "Quantifying and sustaining welfare gains from monetary commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1253-1276, October.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
  12. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2007. "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 251-311 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "The design of feedback rules in linear stochastic rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March.
  14. Simon Gilchrist & Jean-Olivier Hairault & Hubert Kempf, 2002. "Monetary policy and the financial accelerator in a monetary union," International Finance Discussion Papers 750, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Nolan, Charles, 2007. "Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 665-689, December.
  16. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with the cost channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 199-216, March.
  17. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  18. Eggertsson, Gauti B., 2006. "The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 283-321, March.
  19. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Richard Pierse, 2006. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation, Efficiency and Target-Implementability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 441, Society for Computational Economics.
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