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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Kevin Clinton
  • Marianne Johnson
  • Huigang Chen
  • Ondrej Kamenik
  • Douglas Laxton

Abstract

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Huigang Chen & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/214, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/214
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23321
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
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    3. Scott Roger & Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/163, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2004. "Evaluating Threshold Effects in Consumer Sentiment," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 942-952, April.
    6. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
    7. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235.
    8. Greasley, David & Madsen, Jakob B. & Oxley, Les, 2001. "Income Uncertainty and Consumer Spending during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 225-251, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    2. Kevin Clinton & Charles Freedman & Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Douglas Laxton & Hou Wang, 2015. "Inflation-Forecast Targeting; Applying the Principle of Transparency," IMF Working Papers 15/132, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Clinton, Kevin & Garcia-Saltos, Roberto & Johnson, Marianne & Kamenik, Ondrej & Laxton, Douglas, 2010. "International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 140-177, June.

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