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Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?

Author

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  • Kai Guo
  • Papa M N'Diaye

Abstract

This paper assesses the sustainability of China's export-oriented growth over the medium to longer term. It shows that maintaining the current export-oriented growth would require significant gains in market share through lower prices in a range of industries. This, in turn, could be achieved through a combination of increases in productivity, lower profits, and higher implicit or explicit subsidies to industry. However, the evidence suggest that it will prove difficult to accommodate such price reductions within existing profit margins or through productivity gains. Moving up the value-added chain, shifting the composition of exports, diversifying the export base, and increasing domestic value added of exports could give room to further export expansion. However, experiences from Asian economies that had similar export-oriented growth suggest there are limits to the global market share a country can occupy. Rebalancing growth toward private consumption would provide a large impetus to output growth and reduce the need for gaining further market share.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Guo & Papa M N'Diaye, 2009. "Is China's Export-Oriented Growth Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 09/172, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/172
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Apoteker, 2009. "La Chine : accélération des transformations et nouveaux défis," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 207-228.
    2. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
    3. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    4. Zhang, Bo & Chen, G.Q., 2010. "Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4304-4316, August.
    5. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    6. Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.

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