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Interest Rate Liberalization in China

Author

Listed:
  • Tarhan Feyzioglu
  • Nathan Porter
  • Elöd Takáts

Abstract

What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization will likely result in higher interest rates, discourage marginal investment, improve the effectiveness of intermediation and monetary transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. This can occur without any major disruption. International experience suggests, however, that achieving these benefits without unnecessary instability, requires vigilant supervision, governance, and monetary policy, and a flexible policy toolkit.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarhan Feyzioglu & Nathan Porter & Elöd Takáts, 2009. "Interest Rate Liberalization in China," IMF Working Papers 09/171, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Edwards & Mohsin S. Khan, 1985. "Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework (Détermination du taux d'intérêt dans les pays en développement: cadre théorique) (Determinación de los tipos de inter," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(3), pages 377-403, September.
    2. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Liquidity and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 339-352, May.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Porter & Nuno Cassola, 2011. "Understanding Chinese Bond Yields and their Role in Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 11/225, International Monetary Fund.
    2. World Bank & the People’s Republic of China Development Research Center of the State Council, 2013. "China 2030 : Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12925.
    3. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Past as Prologue? Understanding energy use in post-2002 China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 759-771.
    4. He, Dong & Wang, Honglin, 2012. "Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 928-947.
    5. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "What Drives China’s Interbank Market?," IMF Working Papers 09/189, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gabe de Bondt & Tuomas Peltonen & Daniel Santabarbara, 2011. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: estimates based on fundamentals," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 287-300.
    9. Nagayasu, Jun, 2009. "Regional Inflation in China," MPRA Paper 24722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Malhar S Nabar, 2011. "Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China," IMF Working Papers 11/223, International Monetary Fund.
    11. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    12. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Were Fed’s active monetary policy actions necessary?," MPRA Paper 32496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yu Guo And Wei Ma, 2016. "Time-Varying Coefficient Taylor Rule and Chinese Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Time-Varying Cointegration," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 27-44, December.
    14. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:89-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marie Luise Funke & Helena Xiang Li & Horst Löchel, 2016. "The High Profitability of Big Chinese State-Owned Banks and China’s Growth Model," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-134, August.

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