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Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries

  • International Monetary Fund

This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 09/155.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/155
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  1. Andrew Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2011. "What makes growth sustained?," Working Papers 133, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  2. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
  3. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2007-15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Inci Ötker & Karl Driessen & Zsófia Ãrvai, 2009. "Regional Financial Interlinkages and Financial Contagion within Europe," IMF Working Papers 09/6, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
  6. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L. Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
  7. P&aauml;r �sterholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
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