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Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/155, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    2. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    3. Zsófia Arvai & Karl Driessen & Ínci Ötker-Robe, 2009. "Regional Financial Interlinkages and Financial Contagion within Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 522-540, December.
    4. P&aauml;r Österholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
    5. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    6. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-15, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London As a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Montfort Mlachila & Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "The Quest for Higher Growth in the WAEMU Region; The Role of Accelerations and Decelerations," IMF Working Papers 11/174, International Monetary Fund.
    2. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    3. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 14/241, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Zuzana Brixiova & Qingwei Meng & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 16(3), pages 141-162, July.
    5. Porzecanski, Arturo C., 2009. "Latin America: the missing financial crisis," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 6, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Chris Papageorgiou & Andrew Berg & Catherine A Pattillo & Nicola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/205, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Farayi Gwenhamo & Saji Thomas, 2013. "Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area," IMF Working Papers 13/31, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    9. Olessia Korbut & Gonzalo Salinas & Cheikh A. Gueye, 2011. "Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms," IMF Working Papers 11/40, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Catherine A Pattillo & Martin Schindler & Nicola Spatafora & Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries; Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/27, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova & Meng Qingwei, 2014. "Working Paper 198 - Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?," Working Paper Series 2104, African Development Bank.
    12. Hostland, Douglas & Giugale, Marcelo M., 2013. "Africa's macroeconomic story," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6635, The World Bank.

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