IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Inflation in Sudan


  • Kenji Moriyama
  • Abdul Naseer


This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenji Moriyama & Abdul Naseer, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 09/132, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/132

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Miguel A Savastano & Paul R Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Arto Kovanen & Olivier M Frecaut & Barbara E Baldwin & Charles Enoch, 2001. "Indonesia; Anatomy of a Banking Crisis Two Years of Living Dangerously 1997–99," IMF Working Papers 01/52, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Surrey, M J C, 1989. "Money, Commodity Prices and Inflation: Some Simple Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 219-238, August.
    4. Reza Yamora Siregar, 1999. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Indonesia: theory and empirical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 329-336.
    5. Ahmed, Sadiq & Kapur, Basant K., 1990. "How Indonesia's monetary policy affects key variables," Policy Research Working Paper Series 349, The World Bank.
    6. Prakash Loungani & Phillip L Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/198, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    8. Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Domestic and foreign effects on prices in an open economy: The case of Denmark," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 401-428, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Blog mentions

    As found by, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How to forecast inflation in Sudan
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-11-09 21:00:00

    More about this item


    Credit expansion; Data analysis; Commodity price fluctuations; Central banks; External shocks; Private sector; Monetary policy; Money supply; Forecasting; Forecasting models; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Sudan; Wheat; ARMA model; Granger causality; average inflation; actual inflation; And Granger Causality;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.