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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

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  • Kenji Moriyama
  • Abdul Naseer

Abstract

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenji Moriyama & Abdul Naseer, 2009. "Forecasting Inflation in Sudan," IMF Working Papers 09/132, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/132
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How to forecast inflation in Sudan
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-11-09 21:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Carlos Barros & Joao Ricardo Faria, 2014. "Inflation in Mozambique: empirical facts based on persistence, seasonality and breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(21), pages 2545-2555, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit expansion; Data analysis; Commodity price fluctuations; Central banks; External shocks; Private sector; Monetary policy; Money supply; Forecasting; Forecasting models; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Sudan; Wheat; ARMA model; Granger causality; average inflation; actual inflation; And Granger Causality;

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