Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China
Recent changes to China's financial system, in particular ongoing interest rate liberalization, gradual movement toward a more flexible exchange rate regime, and rapid development of capital markets, have changed substantially the environment in which monetary policy operates. In light of these changes, we estimate an error correction model using a General-to-Specific methodology and confirm that a stable broad money demand function exists taking proper account of asset substitution, with an income elasticity of less than unity. Current inflation is found to have a significant negative impact on the real money demand. However, money demand does not appear very sensitive to interest rates, possibly reflecting their partial liberalization. Changes in the exchange rate also do not affect money demand significantly, but expectations of a further renminbi appreciation since 2005 appears to induce more money demand. Stock prices are statistically insignificant despite recent investors' interest in equity markets.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Subramanian S. Sriram, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 3.
- H. Yamada, 2000. "M2 demand relation and effective exchange rate in Japan: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 229-232.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995.
"Modelling inflation in Australia,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yi, Gang, 1993. " Towards Estimating the Demand for Money in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 243-70.
- Hafer R. W. & Kutan A. M., 1993. "Further Evidence on Money, Output, and Prices in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 701-709, September.
- Girardin, Eric, 1996. " Is There a Long Run Demand for Currency in China?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 169-84.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1996.
"Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece,"
IMF Working Papers
96/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
- Neil R. Ericsson & Sunil Sharma, 1996. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yu, Qiao & Tsui, Albert K., 2000. "Monetary services and money demand in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-148, December.
- Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Taylor, M P, 1986. "From the General to the Specific: The Demand for M2 in Three," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 243-61.
- Feltenstein, Andrew & Ha, Jiming, 1992. "The link between macroeconomic adjustment and sectoral output in post-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 109-124.
- Ma, Guonan, 1993. "Macroeconomic disequilibrium, structural changes, and the household savings and money demand in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 115-136, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Feltenstein, Andrew & Farhadian, Ziba, 1987. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Targets, and the Price Level in a Centrally Planned Economy: An Application to the Case of China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 137-56, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.