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A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

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  • E. H. Gardner
  • Julian Di Giovanni

Abstract

This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • E. H. Gardner & Julian Di Giovanni, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 08/97, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/97
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    2. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    3. Nigel A Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Tushar Poddar & Mangal Goswami & Juan Sole & Victor Echévarria Icaza, 2006. "Interest Rate Determination in Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 06/94, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    6. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carone, Giuseppe & Berti, Katia, 2014. "Assessing public debt sustainability in EU member states:a guide," MPRA Paper 62570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jafri, Sabina Khurram, 2009. "External Debt Sustainability Analysis for the Medium Term: A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 363-382.
    3. David Cronin & Kevin Dowd, 2013. "Fiscal Fan Charts: A Tool for Assessing Member States' (Likely?) Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34, pages 517-534, December.
    4. Baghdassarian, William & Mele, Gianluca & Pradelli, Juan, 2014. "Assessing public debt sustainability in Mauritania with a stochastic framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7088, The World Bank.

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